Forecasting what comes next, Post the Covid-19 Pandemic
Megatrends and Mesa trends
Sometime ago I was quite impressed by a forecasting document called Turn and Face the Strange. This report was produced by a team at Ryerson University’s Brookfield Institute for Innovation and Entrepreneurship.
At the time it was published in April 2019, there was a lot hype in the Toronto area around the ideas of smart cities, sensors, Internet of Things and Artificial Intelligence. Many indicators were pointing towards technology as the predominant area to watch in our urban area surrounding Toronto. This report had an amazing graphic that I pinned up to the wall of my cubicle because I was hooked on the thought; what comes next and what trend(s) would be more prevalent than others?
The authors created this graphic in 2019 as a way to illustrate the connection between trends (the more dominant influence), shown as blue arrows and then the counter trends are shown as pink arrows.
At the time that the report came out, I shared the graphic and the full report with colleagues and asked the question — “What do you think of this, would you make business decisions based on this?” For most people, I spoke to they didn’t seem to regard the report as a business planning tool. Now I know that Brookfield also has a labour force planning tool linked to the data analysis.
The Counter Trends caught my interest
At the time, I was fascinated with the counter trends because it seemed as though there several items on this list that were international in nature and perhaps out of control of most people. I remember reflecting on #27 International Tensions, #18 Resource Scarcity, #20 Climate Refugees, and #19 Wildfires, Flooding and Mudslides and thinking these were significant items and wondering how you would build a resilient and prosperous business plan that would be able to keep up to these types of international pressures.
In terms of technological innovations and large trends, I was aware of the larger forces at work and I wondered how they would respond to some of these counter trends. Today, we are sometime later, responding to a global pandemic and wondering what will a Post-Trump America look like in terms of trade, health and climate change.
Personally, I’ve moved from a job in economic development in local government to re-launch my own consulting company in arts and culture. Before the pandemic hit, many large art galleries and museums had started to develop digital strategies, but since March 2020, many museums in the United States have faced shutdowns and layoffs. I’ve written about these shifts and innovations in an earlier medium article.
From March 2020 until now, I have attended webinars and gathered information for digital strategies, online programming and virtual tours in art galleries and museums. I have also found connections to the prevalent technology trends of AI, machine learning, 3D scanning, a virtual projector that you can use on your smart phone to look at art in your own room or backyard.
In addition to this, many have pointed out the worrying trends of the digital divide, civic engagement and isolation as well as black, indigenous and disenfranchised peoples in the world. Many have pointed out that big tech, knowledge workers and the more connected communities have suffered less than rural, indigenous, and frontline service workers (retail, food service, food manufacturing and warehouse workers). In Canada, Statistics Canada has produced several reports on this area. For those workers that do not have the option of work from home, March 2020 to Sept 2021 remains a challenging time until we have widespread vaccination and tracing/testing.
Yesterday’s Gone — New Report
When the team at Brookfield released the new report, they indicated that the new report might help you to “understand how the Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated and disrupted pre-existing trends, or generated new trajectories”.
The authors identified the following Megatrends in February 10, 2021. Under each heading the authors categorized 34 related mesa trends as weak, emerging and mature in terms of awareness.
The authors point to their methodology behind the report as horizon scanning, completed with data points and 50 labour experts gathered in November 2020.
If you are interested in the methodology and the value of this approach take a look at their forecasting web app where you can filter information by occupations, skills and demographics.
In terms of the mesa trends and how they have impacted my life since 2019, I would have to say that the trends that I have been involved with and fascinated with are:
- road to reconciliation
- crisis breeds creativity
The report mentions “There might be greater demand for settlers who appreciate and respect Indigenous ways of life and are skilled cross-cultural communicators”. I wrote in an earlier medium article about my learning journey involving indigenous culture, knowledge keepers and Canada’s indigenous visual artists.
The report echoes the concern of others regarding the longer term impact of the pandemic on arts and culture in Canada under the mesa trend Crisis Breeds Creativity. The Canadian Association for the Performing Arts (CAPACOA) has highlighted this impact when they state that one in four arts worker lost their job in 2020.
Some of my colleagues are concerned that patterns of behaviour adopted during the pandemic in terms of digital online consumption will create permanent changes in the sector. This report from Brookfield suggests “The Canadian economy may not be able to support arts and culture activities, and this may result in the longer-term decline of this sector and reduce the desire for this career path moving forward”.
A more hopeful vision would involve Canada’s tech sector in assisting the arts and culture sector with digital transformation projects so that Canadian cultural content is marketed to a broader global audience.
